INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASAFETIDA PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN AFGHANISTAN: RISKS, CASH FLOWS AND SCALE-UP STRATEGY

Аннотация

This article develops an investment and financial approach to assessing a project for the cultivation, processing, and export of asafoetida in Afghanistan. The study is based on an initial business plan containing five-year forecasts, a structure of initial investments, a personnel model, a marketing strategy, and a risk analysis. It is shown that the specifics of the project are determined by the long biological cycle of the crop, a high need for initial financing, and the need for simultaneous investments in land, processing, quality, and export infrastructure. The author's "4 F - Hing " model is proposed: Finance, Farming, Factory, Foreign Market —and a system of benchmarks for liquidity, investment sustainability, and export performance. The use of phased financing, scenario analysis, and "investment gates" is substantiated, whereby the transition to the next stage of scaling occurs after achieving specified operational KPIs. The results can be used by entrepreneurs, investors, and development institutions when structuring agricultural export projects in conditions of high uncertainty.